They will decide the election

One week before the first round of the 2014 presidential election and it is already the tightest in history since 1989. In all the subsequent elections —1994, 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 — it was reasonably predictable on the eve of the second round who would assume power in the Planalto Palace (see the candidates´ ratings below). Even in the 1989 election, the only one that could be regarded as resembling the current campaign, the PRN candidate, Fernando Collor de Mello, started the second round with an easy lead of nine points over the PT candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The difference between them only narrowed in the last part of the second round by one point for a few days before the decisive vote. The polls now show that Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB), the first and second placed in the first round, have an unparalleled difference of only four points in Rousseff´s favor in the second round, a technical draw  within the margin of error, according to the latest survey by the Datafolha institute, published last Friday.

In a match as closely disputed as this, in which any small advantage could decide the final result, the eyes of the first-round victors will already be focused on a small group of electors the morning after the election (October 6). These are the undecided, particularly those whose first choice was defeated in the first-round, and still have not decided who to vote for subsequently. Around 20% of Aécio Neves´s and Marina Silva´s voters fit this profile. They are mainly women and do not know who they would vote for should their candidate not run in the second round.

These 20% of Neves´s undecided “orphans” represent only 3% of the Brazilian electorate. The 20% who make up Silva´s undecided orphans, should she lose to Neves, are equivalent to 6% of all the electors. These calculations are from statistician Neale El-Dash, director of the site Polling Data. Although this is a small amount of Brazilians in both cases, as the dispute is running neck and neck, the candidate who wins them over is likely to be the next president.

Based on the crossover effects of several segments of the Datafolha survey, VEJA has outlined a profile of those electors and listed what would make them decide how to vote. The undecided Neves orphan is a member of the traditional middle class, aged over 45 and lives in the South or Southeast regions. He/she is conservative from the political and economic point of view and, for this reason, although he/she has a poor opinion of the PT government, would hesitate to vote for the PSB candidate. This voter fears that changing to Silva would be very “radical”. Therefore, he/she is hesitating between rejecting the PT and the fear of a too abrupt change. To win this voter over, he/she needs to be convinced that the new government will be different from the present one but in a way that would not harm his/her life.

In the unlikely case of Silva not being a candidate in the second round, the profile of the voter that she would have left who was still undecided over a second option would correspond to someone belonging to the C class and a resident in a medium-sized or large city, also from the South or Southeast regions. For this elector, the questions are of a different nature. He/she is disenchanted with politics, and also has a negative view of the PT government and would therefore not vote for Rousseff. However, this voter believes that Rousseff and Neves both represent the “old politics” criticized by Silva. To win this elector´s vote depends on convincing him/her that the PSDB candidate represents something new, and not only the other side of the coin that this voter does not want.

Another new element in this dispute is the change in the geographic electoral axis after 12 years of PT rule. In contrast to the situation between 2006 and 2010 when crushing votes in the Northeast ensured the PT victory, the weight of the Southeast in deciding the winner will be much bigger this time round. In 2010, the PSDB candidate, José Serra, beat Rousseff in the South and was just behind her in the Southeast but she gained 30 points more than him in the Northeast. The surveys now show that Silva is just over 10 points behind the president in the Northeast. This means that a victory for her in the Southeast — where the electoral college is bigger and she leads the polls — could ensure her victory.

The barrage of attacks to which Silva has been subjected in the last month, however, has made her rejection rating increase, including in the region where she is regarded as the favorite. The PT´s marketing offensive dissolved the 10-point advantage the former senator had at one point over president Rousseff in the second round. This meant that those Neves voters who had said they were willing to migrate to the PSB candidate in the second round fell from 70% to less than 60%. “The PT´s aggressive campaign immediately affected Neves´s electors who are better educated, urbanized and have a higher income. These groups have greater access to information and the effects are felt more rapidly,” said the Datafolha general director, Mauro Paulino.

Silva´s supporters were shaken by the speed of her fall and made veiled criticisms of her campaign last week. They said that, on one hand, the aggressiveness of the PT´s marketing increases in proportion to the decline in its scruples. On the other hand stand those Silva supporters who are proud of her purity and amateurism in the electoral propaganda. There is no doubt which side would be at a disadvantage in this battle. As one analyst said: “The game is brutal. If Marina keeps being fouled and waits for the referee to blow the whistle, she will be left talking to herself”.

However, Silva has already made it clear that she has no intention of retaliating in the same way. She repeated to VEJA last Tuesday what she had said in 2010 when she lost the presidential election as the Green Party candidate with 19% of the votes: “I want to win by winning. I am not going to win by losing, by fighting unfairly”. (See the whole interview in Portuguese in VEJA.com.)

However, the PT is not showing any signs of silencing its guns or even wasting time evaluating the quality of the fight. President Rousseff went on the attack again last Friday. Her TV propaganda program repeated the insinuation that Silva´s proposal of granting independence to the Central Bank was aimed at favoring the bankers and would bring misery to the poor. The film that was shown last Friday had a black background and phrases in white letters. The voice over said: “Marina has still not answered why she wants to give independence to the Central Bank. Neca Setubal, heir to Banco Itaú and coordinator of Marina´s government program, could perhaps answer this question”. The film then showed a report from the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper announcing that Neca Setubal, an educator, had donated money to the Marina Silva Institute in 2013.

With her place guaranteed in the second round, the PT candidate should intensify her attacks against her likeliest adversary right from the voting day on October 5. The 2006 election showed how the party in power acts at these times. That year, Lula, who was the candidate for re-election, had 47 million votes in the first round and Geraldo Alckmin, of the PSDB, 40 million. Less than 24 hours after the result was announced, the PT called a meeting in which 17 government ministers took part.

The following day, each of them went to a state with the mission of collecting votes for the PT candidate. At least five of them had the extra task of getting air time on the TV news programs to attack the PSDB candidate. “There were ministers attacking us on the TV news program in the morning, afternoon, evening and early hours,” said one PSDB member. While this was going on, the opposition remained paralyzed and astonished. Alckmin lost to Lula by a difference of more than 20.7 million votes. There is no doubt the operation will be repeated, at least on the PT´s part. What remains to know is how Silva´s idealistic supporters will react.

Additional reporting by Mariana Barros